IS A SAFETY SNEAKING UP ON PICK 11?

Two or three months ago, it is debatable if one could have found a single draft pundit who had Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman in the top half of the first round. It’s even questionable how many Miami Dolphins fans had even heard of him at this time last year.

But with just over three weeks until the 2026 NFL Draft, draft boards are at their most dynamic and Thieneman is a player who has undeniably been a prospect whose stock has soared since the combine.

A HUGE HAFLEY NEED

Due to HC/playcaller Jeff Hafley‘s style of his defense, which is focused on confusion and pressure on the front half causing quick or incorrect decisions, a skilled single-high safety may be the most important position in his defense.

Cover 1/Cover 3 counts on physical outside corners covering the deep outside third of the field, along with the deep safety. The safety tends to shade the corner on the field side, while the team’s best cover cornerback tends to take the boundary side and man it himself.

A free safety like Thieneman would be ideal not only long term, but especially in a year where the goal for the defensive backfield is likely growth. What is his value? He’s an eraser.

At 6-0, 201 Thieneman tested at 4.35 40-yard dash (1.52 split), 41-inch vertical and 10-5 broad jump at the combine, all elite. More importantly, he takes great angles to the ball his play speed matches the combine speed – he’s a missile.

It stands out that he seems to prefer playing centerfield as opposed to a player you can move all over, but maybe that is just a function of his speed. He plays that deep because he can get there anyway, while protecting his corners from getting beat over top.

His traits are perfect for Hafley’s deep safety — around the ball a lot. He is not in the same class as a player like Caleb Downs in terms of coverage versatility. On the flip side, he can track way better than Downs and does have the traits of a top-third of the first round pick.

DUCKS POPPING UP AROUND MIAMI PICKS

Thieneman joins his teammate tight end Kenyon Sadiq to form a pair of prospects with high upside, but at typically low-priority positions. Unless Miami trades down in round one somewhere between its current first round picks, it’s possible that selecting either would be viewed as a reach.

Having touched on the security behind why Thieneman – despite being a safety – may be worthy of a pick as high as 11 for a team like the Dolphins.

Though not a slam-dunk as a tight end prospect for teams who desire a Y tight end, Sadiq could be one as an F tight end or H-back. As unlikely as a tight end would seem, and especially one who isn’t fitting the stated Jon-Eric Sullivan size profile [reference, Sadiq still has fewer holes in his game than most of the players who will be selected ahead of him.

The trenches, edge rushers and cornerback all qualify as a preferred position over safety and/or tight end. But in the case of these two Ducks, the fit may be a challenge to pass up on if a team is looking for best player available.  



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Greg Creese