Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s December 17 press conference — the first major public hiccup in his until-now nearly unwavering support for quarterback Tua Tagavailoa – likely marked the beginning of major change in the team’s structure. The question is, where do they take it from here?

The short answer on what they should do is as much roster building between now and the end of 2026, while also building significant draft capital for 2027, in hopes that the final piece of the build is its next long-term starting quarterback.

PRESSER SUGGESTS TUA’S DAYS NUMBERED

The McDaniel press conference was almost exclusively focused on news earlier in the day that the team was moving on from Tagavailoa as the team’s starter for the first time in over five years.

It also named rookie Quinn Ewers the starter going into Sunday’s game against Cincinnati, and that (a disappointed) Zach Wilson would serve as the backup, making Tagavailoa QB3 for the first time in his career.

It can be said that McDaniel makes a living out of dancing around answers, often really offering nothing of note in a barrage of words in his pressers. This availability was mostly no different, but what was notable were mostly things he didn’t address.

The one that struck hardest was a question that directly asserted this situation between coach and quarterback as having “come full circle” and as being “the end,” something that as the listener felt premature, given what we know to date.

While watching McDaniel wait for the question to end, the anticipation of him addressing the absolutes of things being at “the end” was what, as a former public relations manager in sports, I anticipated was coming next.

To my surprise, he left it completely alone and fell on a story instead of him not allowing himself to think about such things. Coach speak, but dubious.

“It can’t just be about ‘he’s having a bad season.’ There have to be things that they know internally that we don’t know publicly that are factoring into this.” –ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky

To review, the guy who just told the team’s “franchise” quarterback that he’s lost his job and will now be serving as a healthy QB3 with a captain’s C still on his chest – the player he has been most tied to in his tenure as head coach – and he didn’t find it best as head coach to end speculation whether this was the end for he and Tua?

Appearances and small hints like this suggest the first reason Tua’s near-term future is in question is a loss of support and belief from his former ride or die. Or, speculating here, maybe there’s been a genuine falling out.

Regardless, for the once “future of the franchise,” the future is starting to feel written.

TURNAROUND IN 2026 UNLIKELY (AND MAYBE UNWANTED)

To say the Dolphins will be hamstrung in trying to turn it all around next year is an understatement.

Whether he starts, sits or is no longer on the roster, Tagavailoa’s contract will linger through all of 2026 and 2027. Signing his long-term replacement will not be viable, unless the team lucks into something. He’s already guaranteed $54 million in 2026 and basically the Dolphins are on the hook for $99 million the next two seasons, whether they take the hit all at once in cutting him prior to June 1 or split it between the two seasons by cutting him after that date.

If Miami wants to pay him $67+ million not to be here in 2026, that’s not a personnel issue it’s a personal issue. There are no cost savings by cutting him.

In a different scenario, maybe Tua would find himself amenable to a major restructure. But that isn’t likely of interest to either side at this point it seems. If he isn’t leading the team in 2026, he’d likely not bother giving up any of his guaranteed money. And the front office doesn’t likely want to extend the commitment, no matter the discount.

Trading him with that contract will also be a challenge for whoever the general manager is and there isn’t much suggestion that there is a market for him either.

WELL, THEY SHOWED HIM THE MONEY

It’s almost Shakespearean that it was the “Show Me the Money” training camp fiasco (see also: embarrassment) that was the slow to Tagavailoa’s roll in Miami, because before that, he was on one.

“Paid Tua” entered the 2024 season coming off of one of the best offensive seasons in team history. He was ranked 36th in the preseason NFL Top 100 players, as chosen by his peers. The Dolphins were the fun team to talk about in the NFL – the Greatest Show on Surf. McDaniel’s style for running a player-friendly franchise seemed to be the new NFL model.

But on the field since “show me the money,” Tagavailoa is 12-13 as a starter with 39 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. He and 2024 NFL Top 100 No. 1 overall Tyreek Hill were stymied in the 2024 season that started with them on high. Tagavailoa followed it up by floundering this year and Hill has not only fallen from his perch as the league’s best player, his future playing is unfortunately in question. A lot has changed.

Off the field, Tua’s choices regarding leadership have also been questionable.

In preseason, he helped enflame debate over whether Hill was on good terms with he and teammates after “quitting” on them in the 2024 season finale. In October, he brought to the public eye that teammates had been late or absent from players-only meetings which spurred a little blowback from McDaniel. He also, at times, seemed in denial of some of his own negative results.

TURNING TO THE DRAFT NOT THE WAY TO GO

Most teams in Miami’s situation would be all over this year’s draft-eligible quarterbacks. The Dolphins have likely dug their own grave in that regard courtesy of their late burst of wins coupled by a shallow ’26 QB market.

The 2026 draft overall is not nearly as talent-rich as the 2027 edition overall, but no position exemplifies that more than the one Miami wants to fix.

Miami native son and Cuban-American Heisman trophy winner Fernando Mendoza will be long gone before the Dolphins pick, even if he doesn’t go first overall. After him, the certainty of a sure-fire pro wanes.

If Miami gave up future capital to go get Mendoza (or any quarterback), it would simply be doing the same thing it’s done that has led to its downfall – mortgaging the future in hopes of securing the present. The Chris Grier administration giving up picks to move up and select busts helped leave the franchise light on the young talent that would need to be in place to grow around a young signal-caller.

BEST COURSE OF ACTION: BUILD

The Dolphins currently sit roughly $2.9 million in the hole salary cap-wise for 2026 (Spotrac). They will not clear that by cutting Tua. Regardless, at fifth-from-last in the NFL in terms of money to spend, a roster refresh or rebuild certainly won’t be coming by way of free agents in 2026.

Without the benefit of money for high-end free agents, the Dolphins need to focus on filling out the rest of the roster for whoever ultimately plays quarterback, whether that be Ewers, a future draftee or signee.

The team did well to draft what seems to be a good trifecta of defensive tackles last year. It landed its future left tackle the draft before. In both cases it did so by drafting within those respective drafts’ deepest and most talented positions, a good idea any year.

Miami needs to employ the same approach at cornerback — which is devoid of any real young talent — continue investing in the offensive line, and adding at receiver and safety. It could use more edge rushers, an upgrade at Y tight end.

In short there’s no unit on the team that couldn’t use strengthening. The current roster is not playoff ready.

EYES ON THE PRIZE

Quarterback shouldn’t be the focus for Miami at the top of the 2026 draft as ’26 is not a draft heavy on sure-fire talent. There is some at cornerback and wide receiver, both of which are Dolphins’ needs and with three 3rd round picks, the team should have the ability to make selections in numbers in an effort to continue to fortify the offensive and defensive fronts.

Fans will likely be disappointed if the Dolphins trade away picks on draft night 2026 for capital in 2027 but it is imperative the team end up at or near the top of that year’s first round.

If not for one of the quarterbacks with a year of experience still ahead of them (Arch Manning (UT), Julian Sayin (OSU), Dylan Raiola (TBD), D.J. Lagway (TBD) and Jayden Maiava (USC) just to name a few who could emerge like soon-to-be transfer Drew Mestemaker of North Texas), the draft will also be loaded with weapons all over the field, especially wide receiver (Jeremiah Smith (OSU), Ryan Williams (Alabama), Cam Coleman (Auburn), Nick Marsh (Mich. St.)) and pass rusher (Collin Simmons (UT), Dylan Stewart (So. Car.), Jordan Ross (Tenn.)).

Trading out of 2026 a little will certainly hurt – and especially during 2026 — but it will likely be smart. (Nevermind there are also great QBs lined up to come out in 2028 (Malik Washington (UMd.), Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Cal)).

DON’T STOP THERE

One final thought related to 2026 pain for ’27 gain: the team should revisit all trades it considered before the trade deadline. It should find a way to extend Devon Achane and, despite his age relative to a rebuild, Jordyn Brooks as well. Patrick Paul and the young (cheap) players already looking good should be the only others off limits to buyers seeking to win in 2026, but shouldn’t preclude them from moving Bradley Chubb, Zach Sieler and, for the right price, Jaylen Waddle.

Tua returning or not in 2026 should not affect the plan — building with youth and stocking future drafts. The Patriots are young and already good. The Bills have Josh Allen still close to, if not in, his prime. And the Jets will enter 2026 and 2027 loaded with draft picks after offloading players like Sauce Gardner. The path for the Dolphins will not likely materialize this offseason.

It’s hard, sitting here still in 2025 to consider the potential for struggles ahead next year, but this organization is hamstrung and there’s really only one way out based on all the decisions made up until now —

Sacrifice.